If you have read my earlier posts, you will know that item number one on my list of concerns about U.S. democracy (the “Crazy Eight”) is the risk of political violence.
Why? The remarks of former President Trump at his rally in Michigan on Saturday are illuminating. One day after a federal judge fined Trump $355 million in a civil fraud case he said, “Our enemies want to take away my freedom because I will never let them take away your freedom…And in the end, they are not after me, they are after you and I just happen to be standing in their way…We will fight for America like no one has ever fought before. 2024 is our final battle.”1
A few nights later, I had a conversation with an old friend about politics. Trump says a lot of crazy stuff, he said. It’s unimportant, all noise.
But is it? Consider three disturbing news stories from the last few weeks:
GOP Presidential Nikki Haley requested Secret Service protection “because of increasing threats she has received as Donald Trump’s last major opponent for the 2024 GOP nomination.”2 Haley was also “swatted” twice in late December/early January. 3
Clint Hickman, a Republican member of the Maricopa (Arizona) County Board of Supervisors announced that he will not run for reelection “after years of violent threats and harassment for accepting the results of the 2020 election in Arizona’s largest county of Maricopa.”4
US Marshals Service Director Ronald Davis testified before a House Judiciary subcommittee, saying “I’m deeply concerned with the alarming increase in threats against our judiciary and the violent nature of those threats.“5
What’s the link between these pieces and Trump’s speech on Saturday night? I think there’s a direct connection.
Political violence - and threatening rhetoric - have been on the increase. Threats to members of Congress increased by a factor of 10 between 2016 and 2022.6 U.S. Marshal’s Director Davis told the Senate Judiciary Committee that “In the past three years, the number of threats against federal judges have more than doubled, as have threats against prosecutors and other court officials.”7 A survey just released by the Brennan Center for Justice found that more than 40% of state legislators experienced threats or attacks over the last three years, while 89% have been stalked or harassed.8 And the impact goes beyond state legislators to local officials and election workers. In a recent poll, 23% of Americans agreed that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save our country,” up from 15% in 2021.9
President Trump’s base is taking their cues from him. The former President has been a major instigator and an encourager of violence. He “has a nearly decade-long record of making inflammatory, violent statements” and experts worry that “Trump’s words…can rile up his supporters and have direct consequences, most glaringly in the case of” the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection. Trump “emboldens” violence among hate groups.10 The Brookings Institution points to research linking incendiary speech of political leaders to acts of violence.11
The newly charged environment is changing the behavior of elected officials. In 2021, Kim Ward, the Republican majority leader of the Pennsylvania Senate said “I’d get my house bombed tonight” If she disagreed that the 2020 election was stolen.12 Representative Peter Meijer (R- Michigan), in the aftermath of the January 6 insurrection, recounted how a fellow Republican voted against certifying results, despite acknowledging it as their “constitutional duty” because of fear for family members and the potential risk a yes vote could pose.13 “Trump’s most fanatical followers have created a situation where challenging him carries not only political risks but also personal ones. Elected officials who dare defy the former president face serious threats to their well-being and to that of their families — raising the cost of taking an already difficult stand.”14
Republicans are both disproportionately targeted by violent rhetoric and less likely to condemn it. Republican voters support political violence at over 2x the rate as Democratic voters (30% vs. 13%).15 And larger shares of Republican politicians report increases in the severity of abuse.”16 For example, Maricopa County Record Stephen Richer, a Republican, has described being subjected to repeated threats in 2021 and 2022 from members of his own party for doing his job.17 When Trump targeted Republican Philadelphia City Commissioner Al Schmidt for defending democracy in 2020, his family received violent messages such as “HEADS ON SPIKES. TREASONOUS SCHMIDTS.”18 Yet, with notable exceptions, the GOP consistently fails to reign in or denounce violent rhetoric.19 “I think there’s a feeling that you don’t want to insult his voters and that his words don’t matter,’” Alex Conant, a Republican strategist, said of how gingerly Trump’s rivals” step around this subject.” 20
Violence is putting elections at risk. Elections are the bedrock of our democracy and in an era when it has become increasingly common for voters to express their dissatisfaction with elected leaders and government officials in violent terms, “elections themselves are the most urgent area of concern.”21 Election officials are quitting in droves. A study by IssueOne found that 40% of the total chief local election officials in the Western U.S, have left their positions since 2020, meaning a loss of over 1,800 years of combined experience. Average tenure of election administrators in the affected counties dropped from about eight years to one. In Arizona alone 140 threats against election workers were logged between July and August 2022. “You will all be executed,” read one. “Wire around their limbs and tied & dragged by a car,” wrote another.22 In this key swing state, fully 98% of citizens will have a new election official in 2024.23
Still not convinced that the threat of political violence is harming our democracy? The footnotes below contain a wide range of well-reported and exhaustively researched sources for further reading. I highly recommend spending some time with them.
And all is not lost. Coming soon will be several blog posts highlighting how leaders both inside our government and in civil society are taking action to mitigate the effects of political violence and stand up for our elections.
Former President Trump Holds Rally in Waterford Township, Michigan | CSPAN | 2.17.2024. He continued, “With you at my side, we will demolish the deep state. We will expel warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. we will cast out the communists, Marxists and fascists. We will throw off the sick political class that hates our country. They truly do.” Other remarks included: “This is a corrupt system…[the judge who levied the fine] is a lunatic…He is a radical left-wing judge….[Joe Biden] is the most corrupt president we’ve ever had…I’m being indicted for you. Never forget.”
Nikki Haley Asks for Secret Service Protection After Increase in Threats | Wall Street Journal | 2.5.2024. Last week, a Congressional panel recommended that she receive a Secret Service Detail. Haley Should Get Secret Service Protection, a Congressional Panel Says | New York Times | 2. 15.2024
Nikki Haley was swatted twice within days amid ‘spike’ in threats to officials | The Guardian | 1.30.2024.
Ariz. Republican who stood up to Trump after 2020 won’t seek reelection | Washington Post | 2.15.2024
Lawmakers are spending way more to keep themselves safe. Is it enough? | Washington Post | 9.18.2023
Intimidation of State and Local Office Holders | The Brennan Center | 1.25.2024. This report covers local officials as well as state legislators. Director Davis was quoted in: US Marshals director calls increase in threats to judges and prosecutors ‘a substantial risk to our democracy’ | CNN | 2.14.2024
Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election | Public Religion Research Institute with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York | 10.25.2023
Trump’s intensifying rhetoric offers insight into how he might govern again as president | AP | 10.4.2023 and Trump is the Accelerant | Vox | 1.9.2021
How hateful rhetoric connects to real-world violence | The Brookings Institution | 4.9.2021
Even in Defeat, Trump Tightens Grip on State G.O.P. Lawmakers | New York Times | 2.15.2021
Rep. Meijer: I experienced the heinous assault on Capitol; now, time to face reality | Detroit News | 1.9.2021. Note that this example as well as the Kim Ward quote were also featured in this excellent piece, How death threats get Republicans to fall in line behind Trump | Vox | 1.2.2024
Vox | How death threats get Republicans to fall in line behind Trump | 1.2.2024
Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election | Public Religion Research Institute with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York | 10.25.2023
Intimidation of State and Local Office Holders | The Brennan Center | 1.25.2024. Also women, and minorities too, are more likely to be targeted. More on that in a future post
How death threats get Republicans to fall in line behind Trump | Vox | 1.2.2024
He Wanted to Count Every Vote in Philadelphia. His Party Had Other Ideas.| New York Times | 12.16.2020
GOP leaders say little to condemn violent political rhetoric | Associated Press | 11.12.2021
Intimidation of State and Local Office Holders | The Brennan Center | 1.25.2024
Assessing the effect of violence on American democracy | Johns Hopkins University's SNF Agora Institute and Protect Democracy | 11.6.2023 and Violent threats, rhetoric becoming commonplace, researchers warn | UPI | 1.22.2024
Insight: 'Kill them': Arizona election workers face midterm threats | Reuters | 11.6.2022
The High Cost of High Turnover | Issue One | 6.26.2023